The technological innovations approaching over the next fifty years will transform our lives so profoundly that only a global shift in mindset will allow us to adapt to them.
That is the conclusion of the 2005 BT Technology Timeline, a technology foresight exercise developed by British Telecom experts that anticipates possible innovations in fields as diverse as health, economics, demographics, energy, robotics, space, telecommunications, and transportation.
The authors are careful to explain that the scenarios they present are merely possibilities, as are the likely social implications of such innovations. To create these scenarios, they consulted experts from various disciplines around the world. Together, they formed a consensus on which technologies are most likely to emerge in the coming years, when they may appear in society, and what social impact they might have.
The result is a catalog of roughly one thousand emerging technologies classified by specialty and by the time period in which they are expected to become available to society.
The authors acknowledge that many of these technologies seem like science fiction, but they point to science fiction writer Arthur C. Clarke’s Third Law, formulated in 1962: Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
Nanotechnology and Biotechnology: Key Drivers
The report notes that within 60 years, nanotechnology and biotechnology will have impacts on our lives that today would appear magical, but that will seem completely normal to our grandchildren. This is because our current time scale only allows us to perceive a small portion of what is coming.
Looking first at the more distant technologies, the experts predict that by 2051 the United Kingdom will have a soccer team composed entirely of robots; the hole in the ozone layer will have completely disappeared; telepathic communication will be commonplace; and information stored in a human brain will be transferable to an artificial medium. Artificial brains, they suggest, will exist as early as 2040.
Time travel, first contact with extraterrestrial intelligence, the movement of people through cyberspace, faster-than-light travel, and the collapse of the international economy are all scenarios placed beyond 2050 without any specific date. These are considered the most speculative predictions.
Future and Present
More likely, however, according to the report, is that by 2046 nuclear fusion energy will be well established, by 2041 a small city will exist on the Moon, by 2036 we will have the first space elevator, and by 2031 robots will be smarter than humans.
Other projections include boxing matches between androids by 2026, yogurts equipped with DNA electronic circuits telling jokes by 2021, self-driving cars by 2016, orbital hotels for vacationers by 2017, robot gardeners by 2011, and computers surpassing humans in processing speed as early as the following year.
These examples are only a simplified representation of the technological futures described in the BT report. It also mentions the possibility of video tiles in bathroom walls to entertain children by 2012, and home walls capable of changing appearance to stimulate energy, happiness, or calm.
This was not BT’s first forecasting exercise. A similar study conducted in the 1990s reportedly achieved an accuracy rate between 80% and 90%. In any case, the purpose of such exercises is not simply to predict the future correctly.
The primary objective of foresight studies is to design plausible future scenarios so that these perspectives can help us make better decisions in the present. We must imagine what may happen in the coming years in order to adapt our mindset, profession, or business activity to possible developments. It is one of the best ways to make sense of the present.
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